The purpose in life is to go to the best school you can- why sacrifice the very meaning of human existence for money?
I totally disagree with this, even if I could get into a top 3 school, I never would. I think what is important is to find a school you really want to be at.
As your chances, I have no idea, sorry, but I think your logic sounds reasonable me. However, I think if you stayed at tier 2, you would still have a good chance of getting a job in Florida. For example, our state university is a tier 3 and many law firms higher from neighboring states that are tier 2 and my friend who graduated from Notre Dame was iven a really good package deal to relocate hear to practice law.