So I've applied to eleven schools. Sent first one in about a month ago and the last one about a week ago. The waiting is already driving me crazy, so naturally I'm on LSN every single day looking for the most recent updates. Hoping for a glimmer of hope from a reach. I decided the other day to download some of the school's data for which I was appyling. I ended up downloading all eleven schools and running them through a normal distribution in Excel. Bad idea, it just freaked me out. When I was applying, I thought I had 5 reaches, 5 targets, and 1 safety. Of course I checked out Chiasu and found that my assumptions were a little off, making some of my targets, reaches, and my reaches, super stretch reaches. Still, one must always hold onto some hope that this year's applicant pool is ridiculously depressed, and Boalt will decide to make a LOT of exceptions to their usually high UGPA averages.
I must preface this by saying that I realize some of the data (especially for non-T50 schools) is skewed by the fact that most of the members on LSN are insanely anal nerds who probably have higher numbers than the national average. This is just an assumption based on what I've seen around LSD & LSN. For instance, many of the lower tier schools have very few Rejections posted by LSN members. This is not to say that these schools have not sent out Rejections to a good number of applicants, only that these folks getting dinged aren't hanging out online all day obsessing about their law school applications. (Hmm, maybe that's why they're getting dinged from TTTs?)
Each graph is a normal distribution of acceptances based on the applicant's index. The black vertical line represents the mean. The two blue lines represent the plus/minus two standard deviations, that encompases 98% of cases within the data set. The red line represents my index. My LSN page is linked on my sig, if you want to check it out. Also, click on any graph to see the full-sized image. Without further ado, here are my graphs.
First, the good news. Well, sorta. My index is well within the range of acceptances for Suffolk, my safety. I am still below the mean, though. I'm not sure what their Rejection curve looks like, because they have only three Rejections posted.
The next four were/are my targets schools, Santa Clara, Cardozo, Houston, & Chicago-Kent, respectively. Unfortunately none of these schools had enough dings on LSN to get any good rejection curves. Although I do fall within the 98% confidence range of accepted scores for all of them, I am also well below the mean, and usually very close to the bottom 2%. I would also suspect that the rejection curve overlaps the acceptance curve in the range where I'm sitting. I would also venture to guess that if I had the rejection curve, I'd be sitting in a much meatier section of it. In retrospect, I'd probably consider each of these a traditional reach.
This next one is disappointing. Washington College of Law (American U) is a school that I thought was a target school. I have some rejection data for them too. Not a lot, but 12 points should be enough to get a representative curve. The rejection curve (magenta) is to the left of the acceptance curve (navy). As you can see, there is little overlap of the curves in the zone where I am sitting. Oh well. I am going to start to think of this as a reach.
The data only gets worse and worse for schools which I knew were reaches. Now they look like super-stretch-if-the-Red-Sox-could-do-it-why-not-me reaches. For all of these, I also have a decent set of rejection data to make the rejection curves. They are, in order, GWU, BC, U Texas, BU, and Boalt.
Now, if only I could send in an addendum to all of my apps, letting them know that I've taken on a new extracurricular activity... obsessing needlessly and analytically about applying to law school!