Law School Discussion

Law Students => Current Law Students => Topic started by: Citylaw on August 21, 2015, 02:52:39 PM

Title: Are Lawyers Getting Dumber Aritcle?
Post by: Citylaw on August 21, 2015, 02:52:39 PM
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2015-08-20/are-lawyers-getting-dumber-

Friend just posted this and thought the board could use a new topic.

I think part of the statistical dropoff has to do with over-enrollment between 2006-2009 it seems like admission rates were at an all time high due to the financail crisis etc. Then everybody bitched & moaned that there were to many lawyers no the student body is a little less qualified and this trend will continue as the enrollment will get so low that there will not be enoug lawyers then to many will jump on the band-wagon etc.

Just my two cents. Plus there are 10 practice MBE questions for anyone dying to take their chance on the bar again.
Title: Re: Are Lawyers Getting Dumber Aritcle?
Post by: 🍟💵🌲🍥 on August 21, 2015, 08:59:44 PM
Interesting link, but 10 questions will likely have no major effect.

As for the article, its boomer rants. They made the exam harder. Its the same mentality you get when they say "I paid for law school by working summers and had no debt" Really gramps? How much was tuition? It sure has risen more than inflation. Just like the "I had a job day one even before I graduated" really old top? Gee, tell me more about how little you know about compare and contrast...............

But yeah admissions are lower and more lower tier schools out there. That much is true. But those at Harvard are no dumber today than those from Harvard when boomers were enrolled listening to Madonna and getting excited about having theater tickets to Top Gun.

Title: Re: Are Lawyers Getting Dumber Aritcle?
Post by: Groundhog on August 22, 2015, 08:05:55 AM
I don't think they made the exam harder. The NCBE is right to point at significant declines in LSAT scores, which is one of the best predictors of bar success.
Title: Re: Are Lawyers Getting Dumber Aritcle?
Post by: loki13 on August 22, 2015, 08:20:32 AM
"But yeah admissions are lower and more lower tier schools out there. That much is true. But those at Harvard are no dumber today than those from Harvard when boomers were enrolled listening to Madonna and getting excited about having theater tickets to Top Gun."

You're partially correct but draw the wrong inference. LSAT scores and uGPAs for average candidates are dropping, as are the number of overall applicants. But, for the most part, the number of schools has stayed the same.

So, sure, your average Harvard Law Grad will be roughly the same. But it's at outside of the T100 where those differences are the most acute. The incoming students, on average, performed worse on the LSAT and in UG (per uGPA). Check out some historical figures for random schools from 2010-14 for incoming classes... it's not pretty.

The test isn't any different- it's the people sitting for it. It's natural supply and demand. The schools need to fill seats, so they are lowering their standards. Ideally, law school will become a more attractive option again, and this problem will self-correct. Or, in another ideal solution, many of the worst law schools will just go under.
Title: Re: Are Lawyers Getting Dumber Aritcle?
Post by: 🍟💵🌲🍥 on August 22, 2015, 08:02:47 PM
"the test isn't any different" It has changed SIGNIFICANTLY (even in the last few years) heck that's like saying that the GED didn't get harder (it did too) its par for the course.

As for the other schools, they didn't exist back then for the most part (especially not the online ones, kind of hard to have online schools pre internet)
Title: Re: Are Lawyers Getting Dumber Aritcle?
Post by: loki13 on August 24, 2015, 10:27:33 AM
"the test isn't any different" It has changed SIGNIFICANTLY (even in the last few years) heck that's like saying that the GED didn't get harder (it did too) its par for the course.

As for the other schools, they didn't exist back then for the most part (especially not the online ones, kind of hard to have online schools pre internet)

Snakes formerly known as Pie-

Your antecedent is unclear. I assume you mean that the LSAT has changed significantly to be made harder. Since you have made this assertion, please provide a citation that I might verify it. While doing so, please provide an explanation as to why, concurrent with the decline in applicant LSAT scores, and overall test takers, and overall applications, there has been a decline in applicant uGPAs (while, overall, uGPAs have been trending up).
Title: Re: Are Lawyers Getting Dumber Aritcle?
Post by: 🍟💵🌲🍥 on August 24, 2015, 08:38:20 PM
you start a separate argument and then ask me to provide citations???
 ???

sometimes I forget who I am talking to here
Title: Re: Are Lawyers Getting Dumber Aritcle?
Post by: loki13 on August 25, 2015, 05:25:30 AM
"you start a separate argument and then ask me to provide citations???"

I think you are unclear on the concept. I do not "ask" for things you cannot provide. That was a very polite way of saying you are a fool.
Title: Re: Are Lawyers Getting Dumber Aritcle?
Post by: 🍟💵🌲🍥 on August 25, 2015, 08:02:40 PM
"you start a separate argument and then ask me to provide citations???"

I think you are unclear on the concept. I do not "ask" for things you cannot provide. That was a very polite way of saying you are a fool.
well actually you did ask (you fool)
and more ad hominem
knee jerk city
Title: Re: Are Lawyers Getting Dumber Aritcle?
Post by: loki13 on August 26, 2015, 05:38:05 AM
"you start a separate argument and then ask me to provide citations???"

I think you are unclear on the concept. I do not "ask" for things you cannot provide. That was a very polite way of saying you are a fool.
well actually you did ask (you fool)
and more ad hominem
knee jerk city

Snakes formerly known as Pie,

You still seem to be unclear. Here, let me show you-

"Plaintiff failed to provide a citation for any facts or law alleged in its motion, or attach a supporting affidavit as required. This curious omission is indicative of the overall strength of Plaintiff's argument."

After a while, you get cured of the whole, "Derp, lying liar, derp, ad hom" style of argumentation. Or maybe not! Some people never learn.
Title: Re: Are Lawyers Getting Dumber Aritcle?
Post by: 🍟💵🌲🍥 on August 26, 2015, 08:34:13 PM
So..........you think saying a thing in a loop changes reality?
@#!* bro.
Title: Re: Are Lawyers Getting Dumber Aritcle?
Post by: Groundhog on August 26, 2015, 09:51:15 PM
Is there an echo in here?

Is there an echo in here?
Title: Re: Are Lawyers Getting Dumber Aritcle?
Post by: seanwheart on September 15, 2015, 01:31:30 PM
Drop in applications to law school will NOT result in fewer lawyers.

It works like this. Most law schools can economically support a certain number of people in each entering class - thirty seats, forty seats, etc. They can easily fill those seats even if they get, say only 400 applications instead of the usual 500. They just have to be less picky about who they accept, that's all. But they can still fill all those seats.  So they will still be graduating the same numbers of law students.

Also, as more new law schools open up, there will be even more people graduating with law degrees. There are several new law schools that opened up recently just in my own state. Law schools are very profitable for universities, and its often a very attractive proposition to purchase a law school.

The only thing that would result in fewer lawyers would be if many law schools started closing down - but that's not going to happen any time soon.


Title: Re: Are Lawyers Getting Dumber Aritcle?
Post by: Citylaw on September 15, 2015, 02:27:31 PM
Well I think your whole premise that schools are becoming lies picky is resulting in lower bar passage rate.

Essentially the applicants that normally would be getting into Hastings, but rejected from Boalt or Stanford are now able to get into Boalt and Stanford. The applicants that normally would get into USF or Golden Gate can now get into Hastings and USF and Golden Gate are left admitting people on the cusp that may not all be ABA school ready, which results in lower scores. Plenty of people will pass from every school, but the talent pool is reduced resulting in lower scores thereby resulting in the publication of the initial article.

It is actually probably just back to normal. I think in 2008, 2009, 2010 it was the opposite effect people that should have been getting into Boalt or Stanford had to settle for Hastings, people that should have been accepted to Hastings had to settle for USF and Golden Gate and none of the fringe candidates were admitted resulting in high passage rates during that time.  Then all these people complained about the lack of jobs etc, resulting in a dip in applications and the scenario above.

There will soon not be enough lawyers and law school will become more attractive again, but then the same thing will happen.

It is just capitalism at its finest.

Title: Re: Are Lawyers Getting Dumber Aritcle?
Post by: Maintain FL 350 on September 15, 2015, 03:36:37 PM
Regarding Citylaw's comments on bar passage rates, I have heard (although I don't know if it's true) that this is what happened to Thomas Jefferson's bar pass rate in San Diego.

They constructed a new building in SD, and in order to pay for it increased the size of the incoming class. They admitted people with lower numbers in order to fill the class, and ended up having a couple of years of low bar pass rates. I think they were in the 35% range.
 
Title: Re: Are Lawyers Getting Dumber Aritcle?
Post by: Citylaw on September 15, 2015, 05:25:04 PM
I think a lot of schools do that.

They have ABA approval and schools like TJSL, Cal-Western etc give people a chance that might not otherwise have it. A lot of graduates from these schools succeed a lot of others don't and when they make big investments in their school they need to fill seats.

You can even see in the statistics in 2009 for example TJSL has 2,982 applicants and they only offered admission to 1,329 applicants. http://www.lsac.org/docs/default-source/official-guide-2009/aba4973.pdf  This means they rejected more than 50% of applicants, because they were flush with very qualifeid applicants in 2009. Their median was 3.03 and 151 LSAT by no means amazing, but most people with a 3.0 GPA and 150+ LSAT are capable of passing a bar exam.

Fast forward to 2014 and TJSL has only 2,200 applicants and they offered admissions to 1,613, which is admitting more than 75% of applicants and their admission standards declined from a median GPA of 2.94 and LSAT of 149. www.lsac.org/docs/default-source/official-guide-2009/aba4973.pdf this means a substantial amount of people at TJSL had under a 150 LSAT score and less than a 3.0 GP in 2014. These same people would likely not have been admitted in 2009.

Does that mean they are all destined for failure? No, but statistically speaking they have less raw ability.

Title: Re: Are Lawyers Getting Dumber Aritcle?
Post by: 🍟💵🌲🍥 on September 15, 2015, 06:44:50 PM
Its worth noting that while schools like cooley drop to sub coin toss pass rates their same state counterparts are sporting score back up to near 100% ranges.
While all may suffer the blow of surprise change, some possess the ability to cope and adapt over time while others do not it would appear.
Title: Re: Are Lawyers Getting Dumber Aritcle?
Post by: seanwheart on September 17, 2015, 11:54:43 AM
There will soon not be enough lawyers and law school will become more attractive again, but then the same thing will happen.

Not that soon. It might be about 50 years before we see "not enough lawyers". If more law schools keep opening up, there will never be a shortage of lawyers.
Even 25 years ago, college grads were told there were already too many lawyers.
Title: Re: Are Lawyers Getting Dumber Aritcle?
Post by: Citylaw on September 17, 2015, 01:02:27 PM
In every profession everywhere there are two many applicants.

People even have to apply to work at McDonald's. There are realistically not enough lawyers, doctors, banks, cops, firefighters, businessman, etc go on to Craigslist any day and you will see job postings for any of these professions.

It fascinates me how everyone thinks their specific profession is special, but in reality the there are "to many of X" it is really hard to get a job as "X" or X-school is to expensive and not a good investment or "X profession is changing" so on and so on it is all the same, but everybody gets wrapped up in their own scenario, but the simple facts are that as far as I know there are no high paying, easy to obtain and low-stress jobs readily available to anyone who asks for them.

If it does exist and I just don't know about it please for the love of god let me know. : ) (seriously though if it exists please tell me)
Title: Re: Are Lawyers Getting Dumber Aritcle?
Post by: 🍟💵🌲🍥 on September 17, 2015, 04:58:41 PM
Lawyers don't retire, they stick around well into elderly age. So you have to still wait for the Boomers PARENTS to die, and then the Boomers, and then the Xers, and then yeah, they will need a surge of new blood.

Think like nurses.
Title: Re: Are Lawyers Getting Dumber Aritcle?
Post by: seanwheart on September 17, 2015, 09:30:57 PM
Well, its true that its hard to get a job in almost any white collar profession these days.  But I think there is more of a "glimmer of hope" in some fields than in others.
Title: Re: Are Lawyers Getting Dumber Aritcle?
Post by: 🍟💵🌲🍥 on September 18, 2015, 08:44:39 PM
Well, its true that its hard to get a job in almost any white collar profession these days.  But I think there is more of a "glimmer of hope" in some fields than in others.

I wouldn't consider nurses white collar (my other example that I gave) or even Doctors. I know they literally wear a white collared shirt, but when I hear that I think behind a desk all day. I get what you mean though. But honestly I wasn't trying to disagree with you either.