Very low shot at Michigan. Especially in this competitive market. Your high target schools should be in the USC/UCLA/VANDY range down through BU and the like. No harm in reaching for Mich, stranger things have happened.
In terms of ED, it's a tough question. My impression has been that schools use ED to accept students that (1) they may lose to another school, and (2) that they would normally have to offer significant scholarship to (high LSAT/GPA crowd & URM candidates). Everyone else, even those that may eventually be offered admission, gets deferred to the general pool. Should you hold out for UM if it doesnt work out this year? Depends. If you can consistently score a 172-173 or above on the LSAT practice tests, you may want to do the LSAT again. If not, I personally would not bother. It sounds like your softs are already strong. It's unlikely one extra year of experience will be enough to get you admitted without also boosting your LSAT.
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